Forums » Role Playing

VO Lottery Week 2 winners and Lottery update

Jul 11, 2014 uptildawn link
Thanks to all that participated in this weeks lottery. Especially our sponsors [FAMY] and [TRI]

Winners:
Match 5 - none
Match 4 - none
Match 3 - none
Match 2 - The Reb wins: Gaus Cannon mkIII and a free ticket
Nightowl wins: Hive Positron Blaster and a free ticket
Sieger wins: Concussion Railgun and a free ticket
Collect winnings from Uptildawn in game

Next week's lotto numbers chosen will be between 0-15 greatly improving odds of winning.
Tickets are still pick 5 and 100k per ticket.
Drawing held every Friday 23:00 GMT.
Prizes: Match 2 wins free ticket to next week's drawing
Match 3 wins 1 mil
Match 4 wins 2 mil
Match 5 wins Jackpot
Jackpot paid after lesser winners. 10% goes to next week's pot.
As the pot increases lesser matches will pay out more.
Additional prizes such as weapons will be given depending on what
is donated.
All participants and observers of The Nation Wars will receive a free ticket.
If free ticket numbers are not messaged to Uptildawn before 22:00 GMT Friday your numbers will be randomly generated
Jul 12, 2014 Sieger link
Rgr, will contact you in game.

Thanks for doing this lottery stuff by the way. I hope it draws more people to NW.
Jul 12, 2014 meridian link
You really need to rethink your payouts for match 3 and possibly match 4. The probability of match 3 is about 1 in 7.94 (12.6%) and match 4 about 1 in 79.4 (1.26%). So as it stands, you'd be paying out on average 202% of the week's ticket sales to match 3 winners and 40.5% to match 4 winners (so the pot would be losing money each week). This accounts for 33.77% of the previous week's participants getting a free ticket for the current week (but does not account for free NW participants).

With the current payouts, each free NW ticket issued would on average be taking 151k from the pot in match 3 & 4 payments.

I'd recommend using one of the following payouts instead:
match 3: 200k ___ match 4: 500k ___ payouts % of pot: 50.59% ___ each NW ticket: 31.5k from pot
match 3: 200k ___ match 4: 1M _____ payouts % of pot: 60.7% ___ each NW ticket: 37.8 from pot
match 3: 200k ___ match 4: 2M _____ payouts % of pot: 80.9% ___ each NW ticket: 50.4k from pot

(average jackpot payout for each of those options would be 195M, 155M & 75M , respectively, minus payments from free tickets to NW participants)

The probability of having a match 5 winner is still pretty low at 1 in 4368 (on average 1 match 5 winner every 2.1 years with 40 participants each week)

Also note that for my calculations I am assuming that the winning lotto ticket will always be 5 unique numbers.

EDIT:
Another interesting thing to note is that matching 0 actually has a lower probability than matching 3, at 1 in 9.45 or 10.58%. So you could do something like payments for match 3 & 4 and a free ticket for match 0, which would lower the number of free tickets from ~33% to ~10% of participants each week.

EDIT 2: forgot to account for 10% of pot carrying over to next week with a match 5 winner: *fixed*