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Also I can't believe this project they have on the spotlight at the moment, dude wants to raise 4k to do some skywriting for comedic purposes, the 4k pledge reward is "i'll marry you". I guess its one of those things where the actual campaign is just as much of a joke as the cause. I lol'ed
Thanks taotoad :).
TRS: the 30% thing originally comes from a Kickstarter post from 2011, going over the statistics of 20,000 Kickstarters. I don't take it as gospel, but there have been some updates around the 'net and it's still widely considered accurate. It seems to correlate with a density of supporters who can help get the word out. I'm not saying it'll be true of us or not, but it still has some encouraging goals to shoot for.
By far the vast majority of Kickstarters flatline after the first few days. It's in almost every "How to run a Kickstarter" manual that this will happen. Even Kickstarter's own recommendations in their FAQ reflect that, it's part of why they suggest 30 days, as it minimizes the "downtime in the middle". For an example of a current Kickstarter going for $1.1 mil that's behaving similarly to us, look at Gas Powered Games Wildman on Kicktraq (they had a bump on the 18th after press related to their layoffs and other challenges, but since then it's trended normally). Stuff like Star Citizen that gets funded the first day are big statistical outliers; per Kickstarter's own published data, almost all the funding usually happens in the first week and the last week (scroll down to "Pledge Distribution over Time").
The best that we can do is try to make and push cool updates (which is what I'm doing now), and continue to try to get the word out.
TRS: the 30% thing originally comes from a Kickstarter post from 2011, going over the statistics of 20,000 Kickstarters. I don't take it as gospel, but there have been some updates around the 'net and it's still widely considered accurate. It seems to correlate with a density of supporters who can help get the word out. I'm not saying it'll be true of us or not, but it still has some encouraging goals to shoot for.
By far the vast majority of Kickstarters flatline after the first few days. It's in almost every "How to run a Kickstarter" manual that this will happen. Even Kickstarter's own recommendations in their FAQ reflect that, it's part of why they suggest 30 days, as it minimizes the "downtime in the middle". For an example of a current Kickstarter going for $1.1 mil that's behaving similarly to us, look at Gas Powered Games Wildman on Kicktraq (they had a bump on the 18th after press related to their layoffs and other challenges, but since then it's trended normally). Stuff like Star Citizen that gets funded the first day are big statistical outliers; per Kickstarter's own published data, almost all the funding usually happens in the first week and the last week (scroll down to "Pledge Distribution over Time").
The best that we can do is try to make and push cool updates (which is what I'm doing now), and continue to try to get the word out.
Cool updates like.... trident shields? :)
Star Citizen is an anomaly in any case because they didn't start on kickstarter they started as an independent website using a crowd funding module - then when they jumped to kickstarter it was because of demand for the platform within the demographic that demanded the game. So it's kind of a funny reversal, usually of course the demand for the game would come from within the demographic that used the platform.
So according to this, as it stands we have about an 85% chance of funding the kickstarter, according to this model. I think it stands to reason that if we can close the 30% goal in the next few days we will have it in the bag as long as we aren't a nasty anomaly.
\o/
So according to this, as it stands we have about an 85% chance of funding the kickstarter, according to this model. I think it stands to reason that if we can close the 30% goal in the next few days we will have it in the bag as long as we aren't a nasty anomaly.
\o/
We'll see :). We're certainly doing ok, but I'm reluctant to be too confident in anything like this until the check is deposited, so to speak. For one thing, compared to most Kickstarters we have a fairly large outlay from a smaller number of people, which might reduce our relative statistical "reach" (in terms of grassroots social media outreach from supporters), but I'm optimistic and will continue to push hard to bring up the numbers.
In the meantime, we can still use all the help we can get.
In the meantime, we can still use all the help we can get.
Yes indeed. Go back and make videos now please
:)
:)
I was aiming to release an update video last night, but it wasn't quite good enough, so I'm going to tweak a bit more today. But.. I'm on it!
Ok, new Kickstarter Update Video is online. There's also an HD version on YouTube.
I sure need to go to sleep now..
I sure need to go to sleep now..
I'm stunned with what all of it is gonna be! Hadn't realised yet what you were aiming for.
Could anyone type all that inc's speech in here, so it becomes easier to translate and post elsewhere?
The best would be if it had legends (to translate), but I have no clue as how to create/include legends in a video.
Could anyone type all that inc's speech in here, so it becomes easier to translate and post elsewhere?
The best would be if it had legends (to translate), but I have no clue as how to create/include legends in a video.
Cool video, but you should place the camera a litle lower and leave less headroom ;)
It felt a bit like i was looking down at you.
It felt a bit like i was looking down at you.
You were looking down on him, demanding he explain this 'modern warfare' business :p
Keep the updates coming Inc, we need more video form explanations like this with the emphasis on the content side of things.
Keep the updates coming Inc, we need more video form explanations like this with the emphasis on the content side of things.
I did my own study to try and see what separates the successful projects from the unsuccessful ones, as well as to see if the 30% thing has any merit. I looked at all projects that have ended in the last 30 days that are in the video game category (140 projects total).
I got a similar graph to the one linked to by Espionage. Mine is not quite as optimistic, but I'm not sure if it is because of my smaller sample size or because I was only looking at video game projects.
Then, of those 140 Video Game projects, I took a closer look at the ones that had a goal between $20,000 & $200,000 and had been at least 20% funded. The image below compares the graphs of amount pledged over time for 8 such successful projects (top row) to 8 such unsuccessful projects (bottom row). Note that to conserve space, the graph for Legends of Dawn was omitted (successful, and very similar plot to Meriwether). The graphs came from http://canhekick.it/
(open in new window to enlarge)
Comparing the successes to the failures, the most noticeable thing to stand out is that the successes have a large burst of activity in the last week or two, whereas the failures do not (The exception being Telepath Tactics, which is a failure that did have the burst at the end). Dream is another failure that does have a burst at the end, but it came too late (the burst didn't happen until around the last day).
The other thing I notice is that the successes tend to have more updates compared to the failures. It looks like the cutoff is right around 15 updates, though there are a few exceptions. Barkley 2 & Skyjacker Starship Constructor were both successful with 9 updates and 11 updates respectively. Days of Dawn and Topia Online are the other exceptions, having more than 14 updates and still failing (27 and 16 updates respectively).
Looking at when the burst of activity at the end typically occurred for the other projects, the successes all seemed to be at or above 40% of the funds they would ultimately raise, with the burst starting around 10-14 days from the end.
It looks like we are in a pretty good position right now for achieving our goal, especially if we can hit the 40K mark by about 2/14. Even if we stay right where we're at now, it would still be possible to pull off following in the trend of Tornado Maker, but in that case it looks like they had the benefit of 2 10K, 1 5K, and 5 1K backers contributing significantly to the burst at the end.
Graph of current progress of VO kickstarter:
I got a similar graph to the one linked to by Espionage. Mine is not quite as optimistic, but I'm not sure if it is because of my smaller sample size or because I was only looking at video game projects.
Then, of those 140 Video Game projects, I took a closer look at the ones that had a goal between $20,000 & $200,000 and had been at least 20% funded. The image below compares the graphs of amount pledged over time for 8 such successful projects (top row) to 8 such unsuccessful projects (bottom row). Note that to conserve space, the graph for Legends of Dawn was omitted (successful, and very similar plot to Meriwether). The graphs came from http://canhekick.it/
(open in new window to enlarge)
Comparing the successes to the failures, the most noticeable thing to stand out is that the successes have a large burst of activity in the last week or two, whereas the failures do not (The exception being Telepath Tactics, which is a failure that did have the burst at the end). Dream is another failure that does have a burst at the end, but it came too late (the burst didn't happen until around the last day).
The other thing I notice is that the successes tend to have more updates compared to the failures. It looks like the cutoff is right around 15 updates, though there are a few exceptions. Barkley 2 & Skyjacker Starship Constructor were both successful with 9 updates and 11 updates respectively. Days of Dawn and Topia Online are the other exceptions, having more than 14 updates and still failing (27 and 16 updates respectively).
Looking at when the burst of activity at the end typically occurred for the other projects, the successes all seemed to be at or above 40% of the funds they would ultimately raise, with the burst starting around 10-14 days from the end.
It looks like we are in a pretty good position right now for achieving our goal, especially if we can hit the 40K mark by about 2/14. Even if we stay right where we're at now, it would still be possible to pull off following in the trend of Tornado Maker, but in that case it looks like they had the benefit of 2 10K, 1 5K, and 5 1K backers contributing significantly to the burst at the end.
Graph of current progress of VO kickstarter:
awesome post meridian, it still does give mixed feelings though but we're certainly not out of the game yet.
Incarnate I wonder if I was to produce a video from a players perspective featuring some of the gameplay ive recorded over the past two years and adding some commentary about what we're most excited about in terms of the current gameplay and then how it's going to be expanded you could add it through the kickstarter update machine as part of a 'player video series' or something to showcase the existing content and have members of the existing playerbase talk about why expansion is going to be so good.
If you got vids from me, phaser, crazy and a few others it would be a really good and unique series. I'd particularly like to talk about this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMzPffXklv4&feature=share&list=UU-iwbAmJjb4bQCchJJPQf_w and what it would mean if we saw an expansion of player capital ships to the game. There's also the whole game supported conflict thing and the potential for even more military action and roleplay.
What say you!?
Incarnate I wonder if I was to produce a video from a players perspective featuring some of the gameplay ive recorded over the past two years and adding some commentary about what we're most excited about in terms of the current gameplay and then how it's going to be expanded you could add it through the kickstarter update machine as part of a 'player video series' or something to showcase the existing content and have members of the existing playerbase talk about why expansion is going to be so good.
If you got vids from me, phaser, crazy and a few others it would be a really good and unique series. I'd particularly like to talk about this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMzPffXklv4&feature=share&list=UU-iwbAmJjb4bQCchJJPQf_w and what it would mean if we saw an expansion of player capital ships to the game. There's also the whole game supported conflict thing and the potential for even more military action and roleplay.
What say you!?
I'm open to it, and I think it could be pretty cool! But I do have to note:
I can't make a judgement call on whether I would use it until someone makes it.
So, I can't promise that I would use it (in advance), and I don't want anyone to be angry with me if I don't; but if it comes off well and is of high quality, I think it could possibly be a big help!
Quality Specifics: Please target 1080p (1920x1080) @ 30fps. Gameplay would preferably have every detail setting turned up (and be on Windows), although anti-aliasing isn't necessary.
If that target isn't possible, that's not necessarily a deal-breaker, I just wanted to set out what I'd like and what I personally target.
If more discussion on this idea is needed, probably start another thread and link it from here, so we don't overwhelm this one..
I can't make a judgement call on whether I would use it until someone makes it.
So, I can't promise that I would use it (in advance), and I don't want anyone to be angry with me if I don't; but if it comes off well and is of high quality, I think it could possibly be a big help!
Quality Specifics: Please target 1080p (1920x1080) @ 30fps. Gameplay would preferably have every detail setting turned up (and be on Windows), although anti-aliasing isn't necessary.
If that target isn't possible, that's not necessarily a deal-breaker, I just wanted to set out what I'd like and what I personally target.
If more discussion on this idea is needed, probably start another thread and link it from here, so we don't overwhelm this one..
Here are two threads I started:
The first is on quartertothree.com
http://www.quartertothree.com/game-talk/showthread.php?t=71716
The second is on rpgcodex.net
http://www.rpgcodex.net/forums/index.php?threads/vendetta-online-kickstarter.79803/
The first is on quartertothree.com
http://www.quartertothree.com/game-talk/showthread.php?t=71716
The second is on rpgcodex.net
http://www.rpgcodex.net/forums/index.php?threads/vendetta-online-kickstarter.79803/
(and be on Windows)
Why on Windows? I used to play on Windows 7 and personally, I think some of the glowy particle effects (like Gauss Cannon shots) look better on the OpenGL platforms (Linux/Mac)
Why on Windows? I used to play on Windows 7 and personally, I think some of the glowy particle effects (like Gauss Cannon shots) look better on the OpenGL platforms (Linux/Mac)
Quality Specifics: Please target 1080p (1920x1080) @ 30fps. Gameplay would preferably have every detail setting turned up (and be on Windows), although anti-aliasing isn't necessary.
I wouldn't be able to re-record any footage, however the footage I have was recorded in maximum settings on Linux, 1020p @ 30fps with anti-aliasing. Here's a sample: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSEdHk8q9zw
You have to turn up the quality to see it properly with youtube.
I can't make a judgement call on whether I would use it until someone makes it.
Right, but I will just be talking over the top of my gameplay videos, narrating and talking. I'll write you up a script version of it afterwards if you don't like it as is and we can modify what I do and don't talk about to suit your preference?
In terms of video footage i'm not able to shoot any additional footage, but I have kept all the basic footage from the videos I have made in that quality and I can cut and paste here and there for whatever reason.
I wouldn't be able to re-record any footage, however the footage I have was recorded in maximum settings on Linux, 1020p @ 30fps with anti-aliasing. Here's a sample: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSEdHk8q9zw
You have to turn up the quality to see it properly with youtube.
I can't make a judgement call on whether I would use it until someone makes it.
Right, but I will just be talking over the top of my gameplay videos, narrating and talking. I'll write you up a script version of it afterwards if you don't like it as is and we can modify what I do and don't talk about to suit your preference?
In terms of video footage i'm not able to shoot any additional footage, but I have kept all the basic footage from the videos I have made in that quality and I can cut and paste here and there for whatever reason.
Why on Windows? I used to play on Windows 7 and personally, I think some of the glowy particle effects (like Gauss Cannon shots) look better on the OpenGL platforms (Linux/Mac)
The Windows version supports the most graphical features, and is considered the best foot forward in that regard (I can't remember all the GL vs DirectX shader differences, but there are some). But, like I said, these are just some advisory goals I'm putting out there.. I'm not going to turn down great-looking footage from any platform.
(Anyway, if there's a lot more discussion related specifically to this userbase-project, let's take it to another thread).
The Windows version supports the most graphical features, and is considered the best foot forward in that regard (I can't remember all the GL vs DirectX shader differences, but there are some). But, like I said, these are just some advisory goals I'm putting out there.. I'm not going to turn down great-looking footage from any platform.
(Anyway, if there's a lot more discussion related specifically to this userbase-project, let's take it to another thread).
I just posted another video update, this time covering questions relating to our graphics roadmap and rendering technology plans!
Cool. I actually was cruising through Smurfspace the other day noticed the other day that Arso (Divinia L-10) seemed a bit lower-res than it oughta be. I was going to post about it, but it sounds like you guys are going to be hitting that anyway.
Also: Cloudscapes FTW.
Also: Cloudscapes FTW.